Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH272026 260324 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  15.6  16.1  18.9  14.5  17.7  32.5  38.4  N  F  F  N  F  F  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   81.0  84.0  84.0  79.0  67.0  57.0  30.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9  71.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  18.0  30.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  16.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  60.0  55.0  57.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  11.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  -7.0 -39.0 -64.0  U  U  U  U  U  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.7%       22.6%       18.6%
 25kt / 24h       47.8%       70.2%       59.0%
 30kt / 24h       32.6%       63.8%       48.2%
 35kt / 24h       32.6%       63.8%       48.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.0%       58.7%       32.8%
 45kt / 36h       36.1%       74.8%       55.4%
 55kt / 36h       26.8%       62.9%       44.8%
 55kt / 48h       40.3%       53.1%       46.7%
 70kt / 48h       22.6%       40.2%       31.4%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%       29.7%       18.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 SH272026 260324 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.40    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  15.6  16.1  18.9  14.5  17.7  32.5  38.4  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  60.0  55.0  57.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  11.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  -7.0 -39.0 -64.0  F  F  F  F  F  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%