Rapid Intensification Guidance SH282026 260323 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.1 52.5 61.3 71.0 74.9 74.2 57.7 54.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.7 91.2 76.5 65.4 51.7 40.8 28.4 18.9 N N U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 132.0 73.0 109.0 110.0 83.0 76.0 124.0 85.0 F N F F N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 70.0 70.0 69.0 61.0 60.0 61.0 46.0 N N N N N N N VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -28.0 -26.0 -42.0 -44.0 -23.0 -4.0 1.0 -40.0 VF VF VF VF VF F N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.80 SH282026 260323 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.50 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.