Rapid Intensification Guidance SH282026 260323 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.10 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 44.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.0 60.6 70.9 76.6 71.7 55.0 46.2 30.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.2 71.5 60.4 50.9 40.0 28.4 17.2 9.3 N U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 108.0 133.0 143.0 112.0 109.0 147.0 57.0 F F VF VF F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 73.0 74.0 68.0 55.0 52.0 46.0 45.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -38.0 -54.0 -58.0 -64.0 -20.0 -4.0 -37.0 -26.0 VF VF VF VF VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.96 SH282026 260323 12UTC Storm Located at : -20.10 162.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.