Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH282026 260323 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40    163.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.3  65.7  70.0  74.3  66.0  49.8  40.1  26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.7  65.8  55.5  46.7  40.0  28.4  13.9   7.6  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 133.0 143.0 144.0  81.0 159.0  96.0  51.0  F VF VF VF  N VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  70.0  63.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -51.0 -49.0 -61.0 -36.0 -17.0 -12.0 -20.0  -0.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.54

 SH282026 260323 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -21.40    163.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.