Rapid Intensification Guidance SH282026 260324 00UTC Storm Located at : -23.60 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 64.2 72.9 76.0 71.9 55.9 40.9 31.0 34.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 64.4 54.3 45.7 38.3 27.7 16.3 10.9 7.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 133.0 142.0 138.0 112.0 109.0 140.0 59.0 10.0 VF VF VF F F VF N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 68.0 63.0 60.0 53.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -52.0 -62.0 -31.0 -18.0 -5.0 -11.0 -18.0 -2.0 VF VF VF VF F F VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.60 SH282026 260324 00UTC Storm Located at : -23.60 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.