Rapid Intensification Guidance SH282026 260324 12UTC Storm Located at : -29.20 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 73.5 71.3 65.4 49.1 38.3 30.8 33.3 42.3 VU VU VU VU U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.0 42.4 32.7 29.6 18.9 12.3 10.8 10.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 161.0 134.0 109.0 111.0 153.0 69.0 14.0 58.0 VF VF F F VF N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 52.0 51.0 52.0 54.0 52.0 49.0 50.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -47.0 -40.0 -23.0 -8.0 -49.0 -19.0 -9.0 -22.0 VF VF VF F VF VF F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.52 SH282026 260324 12UTC Storm Located at : -29.20 163.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.