Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH282026 260324 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -30.80    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        73.5  63.2  48.4  38.9  35.0  28.6  38.6  58.4 VU VU VU  U  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.4  43.4  37.7  29.6  21.3  17.3  15.6  15.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   136.0 110.0 111.0 141.0 108.0  25.0  38.0 -22.0 VF  F  F VF  F  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  49.0  50.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -47.0 -15.0  -9.0  -2.0 -34.0  -0.0  10.0 -42.0 VF VF  F  N VF  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.12

 SH282026 260324 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -30.80    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.