Rapid Intensification Guidance SH292026 260406 06UTC Storm Located at : -34.50 74.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.9 62.7 60.7 59.3 43.9 50.5 57.7 28.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 22.7 19.6 15.1 11.7 9.1 8.1 6.0 4.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 60.0 112.0 81.0 10.0 0.0 -1.0 97.0 F N F N U U U F Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 65.0 68.0 72.0 69.0 54.0 53.0 66.0 N N N N N U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -72.0 -59.0 -39.0 -19.0 -35.0 -33.0 -41.0 -6.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 17.32 SH292026 260406 06UTC Storm Located at : -34.50 74.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.