Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH932026 260305 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  34.9  33.8  29.9  32.6  23.9  19.0  17.7  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  44.0  43.0  38.0  28.0  17.0   5.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 129.6 125.1 116.5 103.0  89.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  -1.0   2.0  10.0  30.0  23.0  25.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.9%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.6%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 SH932026 260305 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  34.9  33.8  29.9  32.6  23.9  19.0  17.7  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  73.0  71.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -0.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%