Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH952026 260212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.9  48.0  45.5  43.4  40.7  41.7  32.0  31.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  46.0  44.0  41.0  50.0  54.0  52.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -41.0 -25.0 -12.0   4.0   7.0   3.0   9.0   0.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  67.0  75.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 SH952026 260212 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.9  48.0  45.5  43.4  40.7  41.7  32.0  31.8 VF VF VF VF VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  67.0  75.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -0.0  -2.0  -0.0  -0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%