Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH952026 260212 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    150.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  44.2  45.3  42.1  35.4  24.4  26.1  34.1 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  44.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  -4.0   0.0  26.0 -11.0   6.0 -12.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  68.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 SH952026 260212 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.00    150.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.5  44.2  45.3  42.1  35.4  24.4  26.1  34.1 VF VF VF VF  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  68.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%