Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH952026 260213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  35.9  27.7  24.0  29.3  24.6  34.7  35.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  45.0  42.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -2.0  -9.0 -14.0  -8.0 -18.0   4.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        3.6%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 SH952026 260213 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    152.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  35.9  27.7  24.0  29.3  24.6  34.7  35.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  65.0  67.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%