Rapid Intensification Guidance SH952026 260213 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.50 152.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 37.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.4 27.5 21.4 22.6 22.5 33.3 34.8 44.9 U N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 48.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 43.0 38.0 35.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 144.3 139.6 132.9 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 -9.0 -14.0 -1.0 -16.0 -14.0 4.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 65.0 66.0 69.0 72.0 78.0 77.0 61.0 N N N N N F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -6.0 -5.0 -11.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 4.5% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 8.1% 4.2% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 2.8% 2.0% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 4.5% 2.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.80 SH952026 260213 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.50 152.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 37.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.4 27.5 21.4 22.6 22.5 33.3 34.8 44.9 F N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 65.0 66.0 69.0 72.0 78.0 77.0 61.0 N N N N N U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -6.0 -5.0 -11.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%