Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH952026 260214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    152.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  21.9  23.0  20.2  23.1  23.3  36.9  52.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  42.0  39.0  17.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 137.3 124.4 109.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   0.0   9.0  17.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  71.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  71.0  60.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0  -0.0  11.0  12.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        8.9%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       14.0%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        3.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        5.8%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        3.6%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 SH952026 260214 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.40    152.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  21.9  23.0  20.2  23.1  23.3  36.9  52.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  71.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  71.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   3.0  -0.0  11.0  12.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%