Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH962026 260213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.20     93.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  30.2  30.8  30.6  26.3  28.6  34.1  38.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  16.0  21.0  29.0  29.0  22.0  49.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       11.6%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        4.8%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%       12.5%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 SH962026 260213 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.20     93.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  30.2  30.8  30.6  26.3  28.6  34.1  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  65.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%