Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH962026 260214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.30     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  34.3  30.9  27.6  23.6  24.4  25.5  22.7  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  64.0  51.0  37.0  36.0  65.0  73.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        9.5%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       19.7%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        6.7%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%        9.7%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        7.7%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h       29.0%       32.7%       30.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 SH962026 260214 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.30     93.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  34.3  30.9  27.6  23.6  24.4  25.5  22.7  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%