Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012026 260114 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  24.7  23.5  19.1  19.6  18.9  16.0  14.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  78.0  82.0  90.0  92.0  75.0  64.0  61.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        139.3 139.3 137.0 137.0 130.1 123.6 115.5 108.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   169.0 150.0 134.0 128.0 107.0  99.0  89.0  84.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.4%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       22.9%       40.5%       31.7%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       17.8%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       17.1%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       15.0%        8.5%
 45kt / 36h       25.9%       58.9%       42.4%
 55kt / 36h       13.8%       33.0%       23.4%
 55kt / 48h       42.0%       25.3%       33.6%
 70kt / 48h       25.3%       37.4%       31.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       65.4%       64.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 WP012026 260114 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  24.7  23.5  19.1  19.6  18.9  16.0  14.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%