Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012026 260115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30    129.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  40.0  42.1  33.2  34.3  28.1  27.9  32.3  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  72.0  75.0  78.0  87.0  84.0  68.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 134.3 132.0 120.7 120.7 118.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 132.0 115.0 128.0  74.0  66.0  43.0  27.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  67.0  64.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%        8.1%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%        8.2%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        1.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h       23.3%        3.9%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        8.5%        2.4%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h       35.1%       10.7%       22.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 WP012026 260115 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30    129.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.1  40.0  42.1  33.2  34.3  28.1  27.9  32.3  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  67.0  64.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%