Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012026 260115 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  20.9  18.9  26.5  32.1  29.2  29.2  29.9  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  79.0  84.0  86.0  74.0  47.0  39.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 127.3 127.3 120.7 116.5 112.4 106.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0 134.0 124.0 101.0  71.0  66.0  67.0  58.0 VF VF  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  58.0  48.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.7%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.4%       26.0%       19.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%       10.5%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        9.4%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        8.0%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       24.3%       16.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        8.1%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       44.1%        8.8%       26.4%
 70kt / 48h       23.7%        6.8%       15.3%
 65kt / 72h       47.1%       13.9%       30.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 WP012026 260115 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  20.9  18.9  26.5  32.1  29.2  29.2  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  58.0  48.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%