Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012026 260115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  23.3  28.8  28.3  29.3  33.4  31.1  34.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  83.0  87.0  88.0  78.0  51.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        134.3 132.0 132.0 127.3 120.7 112.4 112.4 112.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 117.0 102.0  95.0  92.0  65.0  47.0  38.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  55.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       10.5%        7.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        2.9%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        9.7%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.1%        2.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h       36.8%        3.3%       20.0%
 70kt / 48h       17.2%        2.1%        9.6%
 65kt / 72h       40.0%        6.0%       23.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 WP012026 260115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  23.3  28.8  28.3  29.3  33.4  31.1  34.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  55.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%