Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260116 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.2 22.2 27.3 29.6 27.3 29.4 32.2 30.1 N N N N N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 34.0 24.0 14.0 30.0 30.0 52.0 47.0 N U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 110.7 102.4 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 79.0 111.0 81.0 -15.0 -12.0 7.0 -9.0 F N F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 57.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 42.0 36.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.8% 6.3% 6.6% 25kt / 24h 12.9% 22.7% 17.8% 30kt / 24h 5.5% 11.4% 8.4% 35kt / 24h 2.8% 11.1% 7.0% 40kt / 24h 1.7% 7.9% 4.8% 45kt / 36h 4.7% 25.0% 14.8% 55kt / 36h 2.7% 10.9% 6.8% 55kt / 48h 16.4% 5.7% 11.1% 70kt / 48h 5.7% 4.4% 5.0% 65kt / 72h 3.1% 4.5% 3.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 WP012026 260116 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.20 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.