Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260116 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 125.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 150.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.8 24.9 21.9 20.4 22.4 29.6 31.4 34.4 N N N N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 30.0 17.0 22.0 34.0 53.0 52.0 54.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 97.4 91.6 91.6 91.6 89.8 86.2 88.0 89.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 77.0 43.0 35.0 37.0 37.0 18.0 4.0 F N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 54.0 49.0 50.0 51.0 50.0 52.0 48.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 5.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 25kt / 24h 7.7% 16.6% 12.2% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 9.3% 6.3% 35kt / 24h 3.3% 8.9% 6.1% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 5.6% 2.9% 45kt / 36h 3.8% 21.3% 12.6% 55kt / 36h 2.2% 9.5% 5.8% 55kt / 48h 18.5% 6.7% 12.6% 70kt / 48h 6.7% 3.6% 5.1% 65kt / 72h 2.6% 3.2% 2.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 WP012026 260116 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 125.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.