Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260117 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 94.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 151.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.0 21.0 20.5 25.0 33.3 35.7 37.3 37.6 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 42.0 42.0 45.0 48.0 46.0 37.0 46.0 N N N N N N U N Potential [kt] 89.8 89.8 88.0 88.0 86.2 81.0 82.7 82.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 88.0 58.0 49.0 40.0 36.0 9.0 -15.0 -26.0 F N N N N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 47.0 50.0 44.0 41.0 U U U U VU U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 8.0 7.0 10.0 7.0 2.0 -4.0 -9.0 N U N U N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.9% 3.4% 3.2% 25kt / 24h 8.2% 15.9% 12.1% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 9.1% 6.2% 35kt / 24h 3.3% 8.5% 5.9% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 4.9% 2.5% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 17.3% 10.0% 55kt / 36h 1.7% 7.1% 4.4% 55kt / 48h 17.5% 6.2% 11.9% 70kt / 48h 6.2% 2.0% 4.1% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.02 WP012026 260117 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.