Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012026 260117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  25.2  28.0  30.8  36.1  33.5  36.7  38.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  28.0  45.0  45.0  48.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         84.8  83.0  83.0  83.0  81.2  81.2  77.7  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  38.0  37.0  38.0  13.0  15.0  -5.0 -29.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  49.0  40.0  40.0  U VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0  10.0   6.0   1.0  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        2.0%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        6.8%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.4%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.0%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%        2.2%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        0.6%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.94

 WP012026 260117 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.