Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260117 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.2 19.0 22.5 33.2 37.1 36.1 35.2 33.2 N N N U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 63.0 60.0 60.0 54.0 47.0 48.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 93.5 89.8 89.8 88.0 89.8 82.7 89.8 97.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 -12.0 -8.0 -19.0 -17.0 -21.0 -61.0 -29.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 51.0 50.0 51.0 51.0 46.0 46.0 49.0 U U U U U VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 0.0 6.0 -2.0 0.0 -10.0 -9.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 1.9% 0.1% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 WP012026 260117 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.