Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260118 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.4 29.0 26.6 22.9 25.1 30.1 32.6 25.0 N N N N N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 65.0 65.0 61.0 54.0 46.0 56.0 81.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 98.5 94.8 98.5 93.0 94.8 94.8 94.8 102.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 30.0 10.0 0.0 -20.0 -29.0 -23.0 -5.0 N N U U VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 52.0 57.0 59.0 51.0 52.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 -5.0 -3.0 0.0 2.0 U N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 7.2% 0.2% 3.7% 70kt / 48h 2.0% 0.2% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 2.9% 0.6% 1.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.10 WP012026 260118 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.