Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260118 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 125.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.1 27.4 25.3 25.8 30.8 32.1 32.8 30.1 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 65.0 67.0 62.0 54.0 55.0 73.0 93.0 N N N N N N N F Potential [kt] 99.8 99.8 103.5 98.0 99.8 99.8 107.4 111.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 -10.0 -2.0 -40.0 -47.0 -55.0 -41.0 -38.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 51.0 45.0 47.0 45.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 -4.0 -10.0 -13.0 -6.0 N N N N F F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 5.3% 0.2% 2.7% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 2.4% 0.7% 1.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 WP012026 260118 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 125.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.