Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260118 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 125.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 63.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.1 24.9 25.6 30.7 31.5 32.6 30.5 31.2 N N N U U U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 65.0 61.0 62.0 54.0 47.0 50.0 67.0 94.0 N N N N N N N F Potential [kt] 108.5 108.5 103.0 104.8 99.4 99.4 112.4 116.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 -8.0 -31.0 -49.0 -38.0 -54.0 -27.0 4.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 51.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 54.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -10.0 -12.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 3.6% 0.9% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 2.2% 0.8% 1.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 WP012026 260118 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 125.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.