Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012026 260118 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  27.6  31.9  31.0  35.6  37.4  29.9  31.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  53.0  46.0  39.0  36.0  52.0  75.0  97.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        103.0 103.0  97.7  97.7  99.4  99.4 112.4 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -31.0 -49.0 -48.0 -46.0 -44.0 -14.0  13.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  50.0  57.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -7.0 -16.0 -12.0  -7.0   0.0  N  N  N  F VF  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        0.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        0.8%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.76

 WP012026 260118 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.