Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260119 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 126.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 28.5 33.2 35.1 34.1 35.5 33.6 35.6 N N U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 45.0 39.0 35.0 35.0 48.0 79.0 98.0 N N U U U N N F Potential [kt] 99.8 92.7 92.7 94.4 89.3 98.0 109.4 117.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -42.0 -29.0 -43.0 -23.0 -60.0 -3.0 4.0 8.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 53.0 54.0 52.0 47.0 46.0 51.0 64.0 U U U U VU VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -5.0 -14.0 -19.0 -16.0 -7.0 1.0 N F F VF VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.9% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.76 WP012026 260119 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 126.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.