Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260119 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 126.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 36.0 40.8 38.5 66.6 83.1 86.0 86.0 N U VU U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 33.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 87.7 89.3 83.0 78.6 73.0 71.7 71.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -29.0 -43.0 -23.0 -56.0 -35.0 -10.0 0.0 0.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 54.0 54.0 56.0 50.0 44.0 42.0 42.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -6.0 -16.0 -27.0 -37.0 2.0 5.0 5.0 N F VF VF VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 WP012026 260119 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 126.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.