Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260119 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.4 33.1 28.6 30.8 33.4 34.9 38.3 48.1 N U N U U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 38.0 39.0 41.0 42.0 66.0 94.0 86.0 73.0 U U N N N F N N Potential [kt] 97.7 97.7 99.4 99.4 106.6 118.6 125.1 134.3 N N N N N N N F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -14.0 -50.0 -67.0 -11.0 24.0 19.0 5.0 U U VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 47.0 43.0 39.0 33.0 35.0 39.0 46.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -18.0 -17.0 -18.0 -13.0 -10.0 -1.0 0.0 F VF VF VF VF F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 3.6% 0.8% 2.2% 70kt / 48h 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 3.5% 0.6% 2.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 WP012026 260119 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.