Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP012026 260119 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  26.5  29.8  32.9  29.6  35.3  44.3  49.3  N  N  N  U  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  41.0  52.0  61.0  85.0  95.0  79.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         97.7  99.4  99.4 106.6 112.4 122.9 129.6 134.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0 -50.0 -67.0 -43.0  -6.0  16.0  17.0 -19.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  53.0  64.0  67.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -14.0 -16.0 -19.0  -9.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        1.4%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        0.2%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        0.8%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 WP012026 260119 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    128.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.