Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260120 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 129.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.3 27.0 30.9 34.0 39.3 38.3 44.9 42.9 N N U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 43.0 55.0 63.0 92.0 92.0 75.0 60.0 N N N N F F N N Potential [kt] 99.4 99.4 106.6 108.5 118.6 127.3 132.0 135.0 N N N N N N F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -43.0 -47.0 -49.0 -42.0 0.0 24.0 38.0 U VU VU VU VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 38.0 32.0 31.0 33.0 35.0 44.0 60.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -20.0 -24.0 -16.0 -7.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 VF VF VF VF F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 4.5% 0.9% 2.7% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 4.0% 0.8% 2.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.88 WP012026 260120 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 129.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.