Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260120 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.3 29.1 33.9 37.0 37.0 43.6 48.7 41.3 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 56.0 70.0 77.0 97.0 78.0 66.0 58.0 N N N N F N N N Potential [kt] 96.2 96.2 103.5 109.4 117.9 124.6 130.0 130.0 N N N N N N F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -43.0 -47.0 -49.0 -43.0 -15.0 6.0 15.0 12.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 43.0 40.0 41.0 50.0 63.0 56.0 66.0 VU VU VU VU U N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -22.0 -17.0 -14.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 VF VF VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 2.7% 0.2% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 WP012026 260120 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 130.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.