Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260120 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 32.6 34.4 37.9 38.9 49.9 47.3 44.7 N U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 58.0 67.0 83.0 94.0 86.0 65.0 64.0 60.0 N N N F N N N N Potential [kt] 98.0 103.5 109.4 115.7 122.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 N N N N N F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -40.0 -25.0 -30.0 -12.0 -5.0 -16.0 -18.0 0.0 VU VU VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 32.0 32.0 33.0 33.0 41.0 54.0 66.0 74.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -16.0 -13.0 -5.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 VF VF VF F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 3.4% 0.2% 1.8% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.24 WP012026 260120 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.