Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260120 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.9 34.3 37.5 38.6 45.0 50.3 45.7 40.8 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 89.0 97.0 94.0 77.0 63.0 64.0 62.0 N F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 108.5 114.4 120.7 122.9 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 N N N N F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -30.0 -12.0 -12.0 -4.0 -31.0 -2.0 -7.0 VU VU U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 43.0 46.0 55.0 66.0 69.0 63.0 67.0 VU VU VU U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -11.0 -4.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VF F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 WP012026 260120 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.10 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.