Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260121 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 133.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.8 42.8 44.6 43.2 48.7 47.1 47.3 42.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 82.0 94.0 96.0 91.0 68.0 63.0 63.0 58.0 N F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 114.4 120.7 122.9 127.3 132.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 N N N N F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 -7.0 -34.0 -40.0 4.0 U U U U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 34.0 43.0 49.0 63.0 65.0 64.0 65.0 VU VU VU U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -9.0 -4.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 VF F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.70 WP012026 260121 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 133.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 43.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.8 42.8 44.6 43.2 48.7 47.1 47.3 42.2 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 34.0 43.0 49.0 63.0 65.0 64.0 65.0 VF VF VF F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -9.0 -4.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 VU U U N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 5.1% 0.3% 2.7%