Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260121 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 37.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 42.9 43.4 47.8 49.9 46.0 46.6 35.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 94.0 96.0 90.0 81.0 66.0 62.0 60.0 57.0 F F F N N N N N Potential [kt] 120.7 122.9 127.3 129.6 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 N N N F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 27.0 27.0 1.0 -22.0 -26.0 -10.0 57.0 U U U U VU VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 30.0 30.0 38.0 42.0 58.0 68.0 77.0 78.0 VU VU VU VU U N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 WP012026 260121 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 37.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 42.9 43.4 47.8 49.9 46.0 46.6 35.1 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 30.0 30.0 38.0 42.0 58.0 68.0 77.0 78.0 VF VF VF VF F N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 6.6% 0.4% 3.5%