Rapid Intensification Guidance WP012026 260121 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 134.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 34.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.2 44.7 43.7 42.3 41.7 47.4 62.6 81.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 93.0 80.0 51.0 F F F F F F N N Potential [kt] 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 121.5 117.4 108.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 1.0 -8.0 -15.0 -12.0 19.0 16.0 66.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 52.0 56.0 59.0 57.0 60.0 52.0 VU U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -1.0 1.0 -6.0 0.0 1.0 -32.0 N F N N F N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 1.6% 0.1% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 WP012026 260121 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 134.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 34.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.2 44.7 43.7 42.3 41.7 47.4 62.6 81.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 52.0 56.0 59.0 57.0 60.0 52.0 VF F F F F F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -1.0 1.0 -6.0 0.0 1.0 -32.0 N U N N U N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%