Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022026 260207 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.00 121.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.4 29.1 35.9 40.0 54.4 49.3 44.0 38.4 U N U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 17.0 12.0 11.0 12.0 23.0 31.0 72.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 118.0 118.0 116.2 119.8 116.2 116.2 125.5 142.3 N N N N N N N F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 67.0 85.0 108.0 51.0 34.0 8.0 -15.0 F N F F N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 74.0 73.0 74.0 76.0 76.0 75.0 75.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 1.0 -3.0 -6.0 9.0 2.0 0.0 N N N N F U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.90 WP022026 260207 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.00 121.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.