Rapid Intensification Guidance WP022026 260207 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 47.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.8 35.9 36.8 43.9 55.9 57.7 55.7 63.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 20.0 28.0 35.0 29.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 118.0 123.5 127.4 131.5 123.5 114.4 90.4 80.9 N N N F N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 60.0 70.0 68.0 45.0 5.0 0.0 28.0 4.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 77.0 73.0 68.0 62.0 58.0 55.0 47.0 N F N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 15.0 19.0 16.0 17.0 N N N N U VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.20 WP022026 260207 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.30 121.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.