Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032026 260311 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  34.6  24.3  22.6  24.0  26.8  26.8  26.8  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  83.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.6 129.6 129.6 127.3 125.1 122.9 122.9 122.9  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 141.0 155.0 168.0 171.0 143.0 143.0 143.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       14.1%       10.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        4.4%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        3.7%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h       11.2%       21.1%       16.1%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%        6.0%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       49.6%       12.3%       30.9%
 70kt / 48h       25.4%        9.3%       17.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       31.3%       47.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP032026 260311 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  34.6  24.3  22.6  24.0  26.8  26.8  26.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%