Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032026 260311 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  33.9  34.2  43.4  48.2  42.9  42.9  42.9  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  80.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 127.3 127.3 122.9 120.7 120.7 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  68.0  76.0 131.0 122.0 121.0 121.0 121.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        7.9%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.5%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.0%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h       14.8%        1.6%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        1.0%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h       29.6%        5.0%       17.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 WP032026 260311 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  33.9  34.2  43.4  48.2  42.9  42.9  42.9  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -8.0  -8.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%