Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032026 260311 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  44.8  42.3  45.6  36.8  29.3  29.3  29.3  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  83.0  87.0  87.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6 127.3 120.7 120.7 120.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  82.0 106.0 116.0 135.0  97.0  97.0  97.0  N  N  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  63.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0  F  F  F  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%        1.1%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        0.7%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h       41.0%        7.2%       24.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP032026 260311 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  44.8  42.3  45.6  36.8  29.3  29.3  29.3  F VF VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  63.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0  U  U  U  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%