Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032026 260312 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.9  49.5  45.8  35.4  28.6  29.7  29.7  29.7 VU VU VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  84.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0 132.3 127.9 127.9 127.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    82.0 100.0 181.0 163.0 118.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  F VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0  F  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%        1.7%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        1.0%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       43.4%        9.9%       26.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 WP032026 260312 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    138.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.9  49.5  45.8  35.4  28.6  29.7  29.7  29.7 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  -2.0 -20.0 -20.0 -20.0  U  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%