Rapid Intensification Guidance WP032026 260312 06UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 138.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.3 47.2 40.7 31.7 30.4 25.3 39.6 99.2 VU VU VU U N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 72.0 71.0 76.0 81.0 88.0 58.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N F N U U Potential [kt] 142.0 142.0 142.0 139.6 130.7 116.6 92.2 60.8 F F F F F N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 100.0 181.0 163.0 166.0 92.0 40.0 71.0 94.0 F VF VF VF F N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 71.0 69.0 70.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 59.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -26.0 -14.0 -13.0 177.0 N N N N VF VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.7% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 14.1% 1.2% 7.7% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 0.8% 2.4% 65kt / 72h 4.0% 0.4% 2.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.28 WP032026 260312 06UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 138.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.3 47.2 40.7 31.7 30.4 25.3 39.6 99.2 VF VF VF N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 71.0 69.0 70.0 57.0 53.0 51.0 59.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 -26.0 -14.0 -13.0 177.0 N N N N VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%