Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032026 260312 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.6  35.0  29.7  28.0  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  83.0  86.0  87.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        144.6 144.6 140.1 135.7 129.4 129.4 129.4 129.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   146.0 122.0 159.0 135.0  88.0  88.0  88.0  88.0 VF  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -9.0 -24.0 -32.0 -32.0 -32.0 -32.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        7.8%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       19.4%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        5.9%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h       43.7%       23.8%       33.7%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       12.2%       18.0%
 65kt / 72h       62.5%       55.7%       59.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 WP032026 260312 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.6  35.0  29.7  28.0  20.5  20.5  20.5  20.5 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -9.0 -24.0 -32.0 -32.0 -32.0 -32.0  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%