Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260409 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    152.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.5  27.3  34.2  30.1  29.2  24.4  16.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 108.0 106.0 104.0 101.0  98.0  95.0  94.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   167.0 172.0 129.0 129.0  49.0  93.0  54.0  43.0 VF VF  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  67.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        7.4%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       46.4%       55.1%       50.8%
 30kt / 24h       22.0%       28.3%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h        8.7%       28.0%       18.3%
 40kt / 24h        8.7%       27.5%       18.1%
 45kt / 36h       34.7%       58.1%       46.4%
 55kt / 36h       20.6%       31.2%       25.9%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       34.5%       38.2%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       31.6%       28.3%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       64.9%       63.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 WP042026 260409 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    152.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  24.5  27.3  34.2  30.1  29.2  24.4  16.8  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  67.0  64.0  60.0  59.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%