Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP042026 260409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    151.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  22.0  25.7  26.0  22.9  27.2  31.0  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 104.0 104.0 102.0 101.0 100.0  96.0  94.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 141.0 152.0 156.0 128.0 135.0 133.0  56.0  F VF VF VF  F VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  67.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        5.3%        4.3%
 25kt / 24h       35.2%       48.9%       42.0%
 30kt / 24h       15.9%       25.0%       20.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       23.9%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       22.5%       13.4%
 45kt / 36h       37.0%       60.1%       48.5%
 55kt / 36h       22.3%       34.0%       28.1%
 55kt / 48h       56.6%       45.1%       50.8%
 70kt / 48h       35.9%       38.4%       37.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       66.6%       64.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 WP042026 260409 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10    151.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  22.0  25.7  26.0  22.9  27.2  31.0  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  67.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%